trb

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says massive debt at the newspapers means they no longer work as businesses.

Maybe newspapers don't work as businesses. The shocking 10% workforce reduction announced this week by McClatchy (Cramer's Take) (NYSE: MNI), formerly the best-run chain out there, is a reminder that all of these companies have borrowed too much money and don't generate the cash flow to make it work. McClatchy, with an 8% yield, is showing signs of collapsing under its own weight, something that has been exacerbated by Wall of Shame performer Gary Pruitt, a man who is still, amazingly, the CEO.

But all of this was totally predictable. I have never seen an industry attract so many buyers with so much debt and so little equity.

Take Tribune (Cramer's Take). Sam Zell's a smart guy. He let the newspaper employees do the heavy lifting when he bought the Tribune company. That was so smart. He will be out very little if the deal fails. The workers will be out their retirement money. That was a smart deal -- unless you work there -- but I have spoken against that deal so many times I am sick of talking about it.

McClatchy could have weathered this downturn, instead of -- it is a bit unthinkable, but I think it will happen -- defaulting on its debt, if it hadn't been determined to buy a bunch of properties for much more than they are worth. The New York Times (Cramer's Take) (NYSE: NYT) and Gannett (Cramer's Take) (NYSE: GCI) spent a lot of money, but they didn't have to buy back stock. Gannett's 6% yield isn't tempting in the least.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal reported that a spokesperson for New Corporation (NYSE: NWS) said the company has dropped out of the bidding for Tribune Co's (NYSE: TXA) Newsday. This leaves Cablevision Systems Corporation (NYSE: CVC) as the apparent winner of the auction.
• According to people familiar with the matter, the Wall Street Journal reported that American International Group Inc's (NYSE: AIG) airplane-leasing unit is considering a split from the company. The people said International Lease Finance Corp have grown "increasingly concerned" the company will be hurt by AIG's financial troubles.
• Royal Dutch Shell Plc (NYSE: RDS.A) and Spain's Repsol YPF SA (NYSE: REP) are pulling out of one of Iran's biggest gas projects, the $10B-plus development of phase 13 of South Pars, the world's largest gas field, the Financial Times reported.

WEB SITES:

• Bloomberg reported that HSBC Holdings Plc (NYSE: HBC) set aside a smaller-than-forecast $3.2B for bad loans in the U.S. The bank also said its Q1 profit was higher than Q107.

The Wall Street Journal, which is owned by News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) is reporting that News Corp. has withdrawn its bid for Newsday (subscription required). Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. was unwilling to match the $650 million bid offered by Cablevision (NYSE: CVC). New York Daily News owner Mort Zuckerman had also bid on Newsday.

Besides being higher, Cablevision's bid is likely to face fewer regulatory hurdles, considering Murdoch's and Zuckerman's New York holdings. But, according to the Journal, the bid could prompt some pushback from investors who question the the strategic rational for the deal. Cablevision could bundle Newsday subscriptions with other broadband and phone services it offers in the New York area.

Tribune Co. (NYSE: TXA), current owner of Newsday, recently reported that first-quarter revenue and circulation was down, as newspapers continue to struggle. Cablevision also reported a first-quarter loss of 11 cents per share.

To the surprise of no one, the newly private Tribune Co. is probably going to sell Newsday. The once-venerable New York paper, like all metro dailies, has fallen on hard times and Tribune's new CEO and owner Sam Zell has got a mountain of debt to pay down.

According to The Wall Street Journal . Long Island-based Cablevision Systems Corp. (NYSE: CVC) and New York's Daily News as potential buyers. Rupert Murdoch probably would love to buy Newsday and combine it with News Corp's (NYSE: NWS) New York Post, but I am not sure whether the antitrust regulators would allow it. He is trying to merge everything but the editorial staffs of the Post -- never a hugely profitable enterprise -- with Newsday to save money in a joint operating agreement, the Journal says.

After spending $5 billion for Dow Jones, Murdoch needs to pick all of the low-hanging fruit he can. I expect this deal to happen. Maybe it will lead to others for papers that buyers are eager to unload. Perhaps, Murdoch might buy other Tribune papers from Zell such as The Baltimore Sun or Los Angeles Times. As the Australian tycoon showed in chasing Dow Jones, influence matters as much to him as profits. Gaining more big papers furthers that goal at the expense of shareholders.

Sam Zell formally completed his buyout of the Tribune Company yesterday. It only cost $8.2 billion and months of difficult negotiations -- but now he can go out and get the pitching his newly acquired Chicago Cubs have long needed to win it all. Well, maybe not. Word on the street is that he plans to sell the Cubs and Wrigley Field for a cool billion as soon as he can.

Zell has made it clear that he plans on allowing the various units within the Tribune Company to stand on their own feet. By his count, there are over 60 entities within the company, and each one needs to strike out on its own. As Zell put it, "As I've said over and over again, there are something like 60 entities in the Tribune Co. and I view it as 60 ways to get lucky."

Activision, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI): Revised it's outlook upward. Shares moved up to $27.98 from 52-week low of $16.05.

Hologic, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOLX): Company is to be added to the Nasdaq 100. Traded up to $69.75 from 52-week low of $45.88.

Archer Daniels Midland Company (NYSE: ADM): The company is still moving up on strength of legislation of new law to increase ethanol production. It hit $43.37 up from 52-week low of $30.20.

Tribune Company (NYSEL: TRB): Deal to take company private finally closes. Up to $34 from 52-week low of $22.78.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Tax Change May Mean Delay in Refunds
More than 20 million taxpayers will escape the alternative minimum tax this year, thanks to a stopgap measure Congress approved Wednesday. But lawmakers waited so late in the year to vote that many early filers could have to wait until March to get their refunds. Ordinarily, the IRS starts processing tax returns in mid-January. But the schedule will be delayed this time because the IRS will need about seven weeks to reprogram its computers to reflect changes in the tax law.
Tax change may mean delay in refunds - USATODAY.com


Best and Worst Stocks of 2007
These are the stocks and sectors that came out ahead - and far behind during a very volatile year for Wall Street. Among the winners were Amazon.com, Research in Motion, Merck, McDonald's, Coca-Cola and National Oilwell Varco which was the biggest gainer in the S&P 500 with a 128% gain. The top Nasdaq stock was Baidu.com with a 231% gain. The biggest losers of 2007 were E*Trade which was down 84%, followed by Countywide Financial with a 78% drop. Other losers include Citigroup, Washington Mutual, Pulte Homes, AIG, Home Depot, Sepracor and Starbucks.
2007 stock winners and losers - CNNmoney


Worst States for Speeding
Taking a road trip home for the holidays this year? Be sure to go easy on the gas pedal, particularly if your travels take you up or down the East Coast. Even a first offense can bring a four-digit fine in some parts of the country. Topping the list is Virginia where the maximum fine for a first speeding ticket is $1,350.
The Most Expensive States For Speeding Tickets 2007 - Forbes.com 10 Worst States for Speeding

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal reported that in a list released last night by the FCC, Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG), Cablevision Systems Corporation (NYSE: CVC) and other "nontraditional" players are set to compete against more traditional wireless companies like Qualcomm Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM) and MetroPCS Communications Inc (NYSE: PCS) in the federal government's spectrum auction next month.

OTHER PAPERS:

• Banks that include Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (NYSE: MER) and The Bear Stearns Companies Inc (NYSE: BSC) are reportedly in talks to help bail out struggling bond insurer ACA Capital Holdings, which lost $1B in the most recent quarter, according to two people briefed on the situation and reported by the New York Times; ACA Capital has guaranteed $26B in mortgage securities.
• Executives at Tribune Company (NYSE: TRB) were faced with last-minute questioning from bankers that were reluctant to fund the final portion of the $8.2B deal to take the company private, according to sources close to the company, the Chicago Tribune reported.

WEB SITES:

• Barron's Online's "Inside Scoop" reported that analysts are not convinced that the deal with Citadel is enough to save E*Trade Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: ETFC), as it does not eliminate E*Trade's $12.4B second-lien mortgage exposure, and the company could potentially face further customer attrition, which many think will continue to pressure the shares.

Tribune Co. (NYSE: TRB) shares are rising this morning as the U.S. Federal Communications Commission is expected to approve a measure that will ease restrictions on media ownership. The plan would lift a ban in the twenty largest American cities restricting media outlets from owning a newspaper, and a television or radio station in the same market.If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on TRB.

After hitting a one-year low of $22.78 in August, the stock has hit a new one-year high of $33.40 today. TRB opened this morning at $33.37. So far today the stock has hit a low of $33.09 and a high of $33.40. As of 11:05, TRB is trading at $33.28, up 99 cents (3.1%). The chart for TRB looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a February bull-put credit spread below the $27.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in just 2 months as long as TRB is above $27.50 at February expiration. Tribune would have to fall by more than 17% before we would start to lose money.

TRB hasn't been below $27.50 since October and has shown support around $29.50 recently. This trade could be risky if the stock breaks its upward trend, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by support the stock has formed around $31 over the past week. Plus, TRB might find some support at its 200 day moving average, which is currently at $30 and rising.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in TRB.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal's "Deal Journal" reported that Sam Zell's planned buyout of Tribune Company (NYSE: TRB) is contingent on the receipt of a solvency opinion, and that this is the first time they have ever seen a deal dependant on this.
• The WSJ's "Heard on the Street" reported that Countrywide Financial Corporation (NYSE: CFC) may not be out of the woods yet. Despite executives promising a return to profitability, there is still a risk the company may eventually seek bankruptcy protection or "resort to huge sales" of new stock.
• U.S. private equity group JC Flowers "is understood" to have walked away from the auction for troubled bank Northern Rock, the Financial Times reported.
• Rupert Murdoch is shaking up the management of News Corp (NYSE: NWS.A), the Financial Times reported, giving his son, James Murdoch, control over the company's European and Asian operations, and appointing two trusted executives to lead Dow Jones & Company Inc (NYSE: DJ) and the Wall Street Journal.

WEB SITES:

• Barron's Online's "Weekly Trader" said AutoNation Inc (NYSE: AN) looks attractive now, despite hovering near a multi-year low. The company has also been on a slow but steady quest to diversify away from unpopular domestic brands by snapping up luxury and import dealerships.

Tribune (NYSE: TRB) is recently up $32.08.

CNBC's David Faber says the TRB deal could close very soon. TRB has expected its $34 per share sale to Sam Zell, private equity, debt holders and employees to be closed by year-end. The FCC granted temporary waivers to complete the deal. TRB announced this morning it intends to use cash on hand to reduce total amount of bridge loan to $1.6 billion from $2.1 billion. TRB January option implied volatility of 33 is below a level of 79 from Dec 6th and below its 26-week average of 38 according to Track Data, suggesting the close of the $34 deal is near.

Daily Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Tribune (NYSE: TRB) is recently down 55 cents to $29.95. TRB expects its $34-per-share sale to Sam Zell, private equity, debt holders and employees to be closed by end of 2007. The FCC granted temporary waivers to complete the deal on Dec. 30. TRB call option volume of 2,688 contracts compares to put volume of 15,775 contracts. TRB December option implied volatility of 80 is above its 26-week average of 36 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) is a manufacturer of multicrystalline solar wafers. Dow Jones reported LDK will tap $700 million in long-term debt and credit lines, as well as about $100 million in customer prepayments. LDK auditing report on the investigation of allegations of inaccurate inventory is expected in early December. LDK has said the company has correctly reported its inventories. LDK is expected to report Q3 EPS in mid-December. LDK December option implied volatility is at 165 and March is at 133; above its 21-week average of 98, according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Daily Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says if any of your holdings in this sector have too much of any one kind of credit, use current market strength to sell.

Getting our arms around the problem. That's the real way we get closure on this credit problem. That's why the market was able to rally Tuesday, even though no one says the problem is getting better.

At last we're just trying to figure out how bad it can be because we know it is worse than the $42 billion that has already been charged off in subprime. By the way, even that figure, which seems staggeringly high, is only a fraction of the $250 billion minimum number I am using.

What's so maddening is that there isn't one kind of debt problem. There are three kinds of debt, with a subset for the worst kind. You have to run the gauntlet of all three kinds if you are going to be blessed by the market. And so far, only Goldman (NYSE: GS) (Cramer's Take) has done that.